Social tariffs and democratic choice—Do population‐based health state values reflect the will of the people?

In economic evaluations of health technologies, health outcomes are commonly measured in terms of quality‐adjusted life years (QALYs). QALYs are the product of time and health‐related quality of life. Health‐related quality of life, in turn, is determined by a social tariff, which is supposed to reflect the public's preference over health states. This study argues that, because of the tariff's role in the societal decision‐making process, it should not be understood as merely an operational (statistical) definition of health, but as a major instrument of democratic participation. I outline what implications this might have for both the method used to aggregate individual preferences, and the set of individuals whose preferences should count. Alternative tariff specifications and decision rules are explored, and future research directions are proposed

Living HTA: automating health economic evaluation with R

Background: Requiring access to sensitive data can be a significant obstacle for the development of health models in the Health Economics & Outcomes Research (HEOR) setting. We demonstrate how health economic evaluation can be conducted with minimal transfer of data between parties, while automating reporting as new information becomes available. Methods: We developed an automated analysis and reporting pipeline for health economic modelling and made the source code openly available on a GitHub repository. The pipeline consists of three parts: An economic model is constructed by the consultant using pseudo data. On the data-owner side, an application programming interface (API) is hosted on a server. This API hosts all sensitive data, so that data does not have to be provided to the consultant. An automated workflow is created, which calls the API, retrieves results, and generates a report. Results: The application of modern data science tools and practices allows analyses of data without the need for direct access – negating the need to send sensitive data. In addition, the entire workflow can be largely automated: the analysis can be scheduled to run at defined time points (e.g. monthly), or when triggered by an event (e.g. an update to the underlying data or model code); results can be generated automatically and then be exported into a report. Documents no longer need to be revised manually. Conclusions: This example demonstrates that it is possible, within a HEOR setting, to separate the health economic model from the data, and automate the main steps of the analysis pipeline

Where should new parkrun events be located? Modelling the potential impact of 200 new events on socio-economic inequalities in access and participation

Background parkrun, an international movement which organises free weekly 5km running events, has been widely praised for encouraging inactive individuals to participate in physical activity. Recently, parkrun received funding to establish 200 new events across England, specifically targeted at deprived communities. This study aims to investigate the relationships between geographic access, deprivation, and participation in parkrun, and to inform the planned expansion by proposing future event locations. Methods We conducted an ecological spatial analysis, using data on 455 parkrun events, 2,842 public green spaces, and 32,844 English census areas. Poisson regression was applied to investigate the relationships between the distances to events, deprivation, and parkrun participation rates. Model estimates were incorporated into a location-allocation analysis, to identify locations for future events that maximise deprivation-weighted parkrun participation. Results The distance to the nearest event (in km) and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (score) were both independently negatively associated with local parkrun participation rates. Rate ratios were 0.921 (95%CI = 0.921-0.922) and 0.959 (0.959-0.959), respectively. The recommended 200 new event locations were estimated to increase weekly runs by 6.9% (from 82,824 to 88,506). Of the additional runs, 4.1% (n=231) were expected to come from the 10% most deprived communities. Conclusion Participation in parkrun is wide spread across England. We provide recommendations for new parkrun event location, in order to increase participation from deprived communities. However, the creation of new events alone is unlikely to be an effective strategy. Further research is needed to study how barriers to participation can be reduced

Finite Domain Anomalous Spreading Consistent with First and Second Law

After reviewing the problematic behavior of some previously suggested finite interval spatial operators of the symmetric Riesz type, we create a wish list leading toward a new spatial operator suitable to use in the space-time fractional differential equation of anomalous diffusion when the transport of material is strictly restricted to a bounded domain. Based on recent studies of wall effects, we introduce a new definition of the spatial operator and illustrate its favorable characteristics. We provide two numerical methods to solve the modified space-time fractional differential equation and show particular results illustrating compliance to our established list of requirements, most important to the conservation principle and the second law of thermodynamics.Comment: 14 figure

Socioeconomic inequalities in distance to and participation in a community-based running and walking activity : a longitudinal ecological study of parkrun 2010 to 2019

Objectives To conduct a longitudinal ecological analysis of the distance to and participation in free weekly outdoor physical activity events (parkrun) in England from 2010 to 2019, and related socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities, to inform policies to support participation in physically active community events. Methods We calculate distance to the nearest parkrun event for each English Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) each month from January 2010 to December 2019. We then report the trends in distance to and participation in parkrun by Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile. We also report trends in the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) by deprivation for participation and distance to nearest event. We go on to investigate trends in LSOA level determinants (e.g. deprivation and ethnic density) of parkrun participation between 2010 and 2019, using multivariable Poisson regression models. Results Mean distance to the nearest parkrun event decreased from 34.1 km in 2010, to 4.6 km in 2019. Throughout the period, parkrun events tended to be situated closer to deprived areas compared to less deprived areas. Participation rates increased superlinearly (greater than linear increase) from 2010 to 2013 before slowing to linear growth. Participation over the period exhibits a clear socioeconomic gradient, with people from deprived areas having consistently lower participation rates over the period. parkrun participation rates became more equal between 2010 and 2013 (RII improved from 189 to 39), before stabilising at an RII between 32.9 and 39.6 from 2014 to 2019. The results of the Poisson regression model validate this finding; the coefficients on IMD score initially increased from −0.050 in 2010 to −0.038 in 2013, and then remained relatively stable to 2019 (−0.035). Conclusions Over the past 10 years, geodesic distance to the nearest parkrun decreased from a mean of 34 km to 5 km. In 2010, there was equality between the least and most deprived areas but by 2017 the distance of the most deprived areas was 29% that of the least deprived. Participation was shown to have increased over the past 10 years which can be split into two distinct phases: from 2010 to 2013 participation increased super-linearly and inequality in participation fell dramatically; from 2013 to 2019 participation increased linearly, and inequality in participation remained stable. Despite parkrun's ambitions of creating inclusive events and engaging with deprived communities, the socioeconomic gradient in participation rates remained high and stable since 2013. Gaining a better understanding of the reasons why parkrun grew so quickly may be useful for other physical activity movements, while further analysis of the relatively lower participation rates in areas with higher socioeconomic deprivation is important for developing initiatives to encourage physical activity in these communities

Selectivity and functional diversity in arbuscular mycorrhizas of co-occurring fungi and plants from a temperate deciduous woodland

1 The arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi colonizing plants at a woodland site in North Yorkshire (UK) have been characterized from the roots of five plant species (Rubus fruticosus agg. L., Epilobium angustifolium L., Acer pseudoplatanus L., Ajuga reptans L. and Glechoma hederacea L.), and identified using small-subunit rRNA (SSUrRNA) gene amplification and sequencing. 2 Interactions between five plant species from the site and four co-occurring glomalean fungi were investigated in artificial one-to-one AM symbioses. Three of the fungi were isolated from the site; the fourth was a culture genetically similar to a taxon found at the site. Phosphorus uptake and growth responses were compared with non-mycorrhizal controls. 3 Individual fungi colonized each plant with different spatial distribution and intensity. Some did not colonize at all, indicating incompatibility under the conditions used in the experiments. 4 Glomus hoi consistently occupied a large proportion of root systems and outperformed the other fungi, improving P uptake and enhancing the growth of four out of the five plant species. Only G. hoi colonized and increased P uptake in Acer pseudoplatanus, the host plant with which it associates almost exclusively under field conditions. Colonization of all plant species by Scutellospora dipurpurescens was sparse, and beneficial to only one of the host plants (Teucrium scorodonia). Archaeospora trappei and Glomus sp. UY1225 had variable effects on the host plants, conferring a range of P uptake and growth benefits on Lysimachia nummularia and T. scorodonia, increasing P uptake whilst not affecting biomass in Ajuga reptans and Glechoma hederacea, and failing to form mycorrhizas with A. pseudoplatanus. 5 These experimental mycorrhizas show that root colonization, symbiont compatibility and plant performance vary with each fungus-plant combination, even when the plants and fungi naturally co-exist. 6 We provide evidence of physical and functional selectivity in AM. The small number of described AM fungal species (154) has been ascribed to their supposed lack of host specificity, but if the selectivity we have observed is the general rule, then we may predict that many more, probably hard-to-culture glomalean species await discovery, or that members of species as currently perceived may be physiologically or functionally distinct

Multiple deprivation and geographic distance to community physical activity events — achieving equitable access to parkrun in England

© 2020 The Author(s) Objectives: To evaluate geographic access to free weekly outdoor physical activity events (‘parkrun’) in England, with a particular focus on deprived communities, and to identify optimal locations for future events to further maximise access. Study design: This study is a cross-sectional ecological analysis of the socio-economic disparities in geographic access to parkrun events in England in late 2018. Methods: We combined geolocation data on all English Lower Layer Super Output Areas and parkrun events to calculate geodesic distances to the nearest event for more than 32,000 communities in England. We use this measure of geographic access to summarise the relationship between access and socio-economic deprivation, measured using the index of multiple deprivation. We then used geographic coordinates of public green spaces in England to conduct a simple location-allocation analysis to identify 200 locations for future event locations that would maximise access. Results: In England, 69% of the population live within 5 km of one of the 465 parkrun events. There is a small negative correlation between distance and deprivation, indicating that access is slightly better in more socio-economically deprived areas. Setting up an additional 200 events in optimal locations would improve access: the average distance to the nearest parkrun event would improve by 1.22 km, from 4.65 km to 3.43 km, and approximately 82% of the English population would live within 5 km of a parkrun event. Conclusion: Over two-thirds of the English population live within 5 km of a parkrun event, and contrary to our expectation, we find that geographic access is slightly better for those living in more deprived communities. Creating additional events may improve geographic access, but effective strategies will still be needed to increase engagement in new and existing events by those living in socio-economically deprived areas

Photon-axion conversion in intergalactic magnetic fields and cosmological consequences

Photon-axion conversion induced by intergalactic magnetic fields causes an apparent dimming of distant sources, notably of cosmic standard candles such as supernovae of type Ia (SNe Ia). We review the impact of this mechanism on the luminosity-redshift relation of SNe Ia, on the dispersion of quasar spectra, and on the spectrum of the cosmic microwave background. The original idea of explaining the apparent dimming of distant SNe Ia without cosmic acceleration is strongly constrained by these arguments. However, the cosmic equation of state extracted from the SN Ia luminosity-redshift relation remains sensitive to this mechanism. For example, it can mimic phantom energy.Comment: (14 pages, 9 eps figures) Contribution to appear in a volume of Lecture Notes in Physics (Springer-Verlag) on Axion

Variability of cost trajectories over the last year of life in patients with advanced breast cancer in the Netherlands

Objective In breast cancer patients, treatment at the end of life accounts for a major share of medical spending. However, little is known about the variability of cost trajectories between patients. This study aims to identify underlying latent groups of advanced breast cancer patients with similar cost trajectories over the last year before death. Methods Data from deceased advanced breast cancer patients, diagnosed between 2010 and 2017, were retrieved from the Southeast Netherlands Advanced Breast Cancer (SONABRE) Registry. Costs of hospital care over the last twelve months before death were analyzed, and the variability of longitudinal patterns between patients were explored using group-based trajectory modeling. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were applied to investigate differences between the identified latent groups. Results We included 558 patients. Over the last twelve months before death, mean hospital costs were €2,255 (SD = €492) per month. Costs increased over the last five months and reached a maximum of €3,614 in the last month of life, driven by hospital admissions, while spending for medication declined over the last three months of life. Based on patients’ individual cost trajectories, we identified six latent groups with distinct longitudinal patterns, of which only two showed a marked increase in costs over the last twelve months before death. Latent groups were constituted of heterogeneous patients, and clinical characteristics explained membership only to a limited extent. Conclusions The average costs of advanced breast cancer patients increased towards the end of life. However, we uncovered several latent groups of patients with divergent cost trajectories, which did not reflect the overall increasing trend. The mechanisms underlying the variability in cost trajectories warrants further research

A new silicon tracker for proton imaging and dosimetry

For many years, silicon micro-strip detectors have been successfully used as tracking detectors for particle and nuclear physics experiments. A new application of this technology is to the field of particle therapy where radiotherapy is carried out by use of charged particles such as protons or carbon ions. Such a treatment has been shown to have advantages over standard x-ray radiotherapy and as a result of this, many new centres offering particle therapy are currently under construction around the world today. The Proton Radiotherapy, Verification and Dosimetry Applications (PRaVDA) consortium are developing instrumentation for particle therapy based upon technology from high-energy physics. The characteristics of a new silicon micro-strip tracker for particle therapy will be presented. The array uses specifically designed, large area sensors with technology choices that follow closely those taken for the ATLAS experiment at the HL-LHC. These detectors will be arranged into four units each with three layers in an x–u–v configuration to be suitable for fast proton tracking with minimal ambiguities. The sensors will form a tracker capable of tracing the path of ~200 MeV protons entering and exiting a patient allowing a new mode of imaging known as proton computed tomography (pCT). This will aid the accurate delivery of treatment doses and in addition, the tracker will also be used to monitor the beam profile and total dose delivered during the high fluences used for treatment. We present here details of the design, construction and assembly of one of the four units that will make up the complete tracker along with its characterisation using radiation tests carried out using a 90 Sr source in the laboratory and a 60 MeV proton beam at the Clatterbridge Cancer Centre